ALEX Salmond has had an amazing first year as First Minister.
The SNP delivered on a number of election promises and his own popularity has never been higher.
Smart, charismatic and in touch, he is on the crest of a wave.
Policies, such as freezing council tax and saving hospital A&E units, have been welcomed. And more is promised.
But his smugness has always been a weakness and there is a danger his success might fuel his self-belief.
Salmond is now not only talking about making Scotland independent, but also having the balance of power at Westminster.
If Salmond wants to know how quickly a politician's fortune can change, he only has to look at how Gordon Brown has fared as PM.
Salmond should try to build on his success, and not risk everything with a referendum on independence and talk of power-sharing in London.