I've A Firm Idea Of Who Will Be The Winner

Aug 31 2008 Andy Walker

IT'S Old Firm time again and the first Glasgow derby of the season offers the chance to size up the title credentials of the two championship contenders.

Today's game is nowhere near as meaningful as the previous two matches at Parkhead at the end of the last campaign when Celtic just had to win to have a chance of snatching the league.

But this clash will still provide a valuable insight into how the season will shape up.

Walter Smith's squad has been revamped since those encounters and it'll be interesting to see how his new-look side approach this crucial test.

While captain Barry Ferguson is out injured and last season's defensive hero Carlos Cuellar is no longer at the club, I expect Rangers' new boys Pedro Mendes and Madjid Bougherra to adequately fill their shoes.

Gordon Strachan's team will line up along familiar lines with only the strike partnership altered. With Scott McDonald injured and Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink struggling for fitness it looks like Shaun Maloney and Georgios Samaras will get the nod up front.

Trying to predict the outcome of an Old Firm game is a hazardous affair and before sticking my neck out I always find it useful to take the match apart and split it into categories:

Celtic attack v Rangers defence: Despite losing strikers who notched 51 goals between them last season, this is where Celtic have the edge. Maloney and Samaras have experienced the unique atmosphere of this fixture before and I doubt it will phase them.

Hesselink divides opinion on his worth but should he sit the game out it's his physical presence Celts will miss.

Given that Maloney and Samaras both like to drop deep to gain possession the onus will probably fall on the more powerful Greek striker to step up to the plate and make himself the focal point of attack.

Rangers undoubtedly have the edge physically and I'd be amazed if Bougherra, David Weir, Sasa Papac or Kirk Broadfoot lost any aerial challenges but from middle to front, Shunsuke Nakamura, Maloney, Aiden McGeady, Samaras and Scott Brown are all excellent with the ball at their feet.

Celtic's superior mobility will certainly cause Rangers problems.

Midfield battle: I have no doubt Rangers will revert to the system that served them so well last season and play five in midfield.

They need more penetration though and Smith must be tempted to opt for Nacho Novo and DaMarcus Beasley in the wider areas

I expect Steve Davis and Kevin Thomson to be the two holding midfield players with Novo, Mendes and Beasley having the responsibility to get up in support of the striker.

For Celtic, Nakamura and McGeady are definite starters and even though plenty of Hoops fans would love to see Barry Robson in a central role my guess is Brown will play beside Paul Hartley.

Most punters I talk to wonder when the former Hibs man will begin to justify his £4million price tag.

Robson's influence on the final Old Firm games last season was enormous and it's that type of match-winning impact Brown is capable of delivering.

Celtic defence v Rangers attack: With five in midfield, Smith's choice for the role of the lone Ranger up front is essential. Kris Boyd will drop to the bench and in my view Daniel Cousin is the best man to occupy that position.

The Gabon hitman might have expected to be away from Ibrox by now but while he's here and as long as his concentration is right he's the ideal striker for the job.

His physical strength is a match for most defenders and he can finish with either foot. It's a role Kenny Miller has played for Scotland many times but it doesn't make sense to pitch him up front on his own.

Last week at Pittodrie, Miller was used wide left of a four in midfield without ever threatening to have a shot at goal never mind scoring and it would be extraordinary if he was suddenly given the nod to lead the line.

Much is being made of the reception he'll get from Celtic fans if he does play.

The biggest difference I can see when you compare the welcome Miller will get as opposed to Mo Johnston all those years ago is that unlike Miller, the Celtic fans feared Johnston's ability to score. I doubt they feel the same way about the former Derby striker.

Defensively, it looks as though Celtic will go back to Stephen McManus and Gary Caldwell in the middle with Mark Wilson and Andreas Hinkel as full backs.

New signing Glenn Loovens made a comfortable debut last week but was rarely tested. Caldwell's experience and recent good form gives him the edge.

Goalkeepers: Allan McGregor and Artur Boruc attract as much attention for their behaviour off the field as they do on it. But in terms of being an inspiration to their team I don't think there's much between them.

For example, if there's a penalty to either side, the sheer presence and reputation of these two will make the taker think twice.

Referee: I hope Dougie McDonald and his assistants are looking forward to today's game because if they're not we're all in trouble.

They have a wonderful chance to show that a tense occasion can be handled well and can enhance their reputations. I have no time for those who continually point out how hard the referee's job is. When you're asking for a grand a game, deal with it and get the big decisions right.

Prediction: Just as it proved last season for both sides, I expect home advantage to count. Maloney has also given Celtic an extra dimension to their game and I'm going for Strachan's side to come out on top with a 2-0 victory.