Brown to call SNP bluff over independence vote

May 4 2008 By Mark Aitken Political Editor

Exclusive Brown Thinks Indy Vote Can Stop Salmond Bandwagon

LABOUR is on the verge of calling the SNP's bluff over a public vote on independence.

Gordon Brown and Wendy Alexander are both considering giving Labour's support to a referendum on Scotland's future in the Union.

Labour have so far refused any possibility of a vote on self-rule.

But there is such concern about growing SNP support that a snap referendum is being considered as its only option.

Senior Labour figures believe most Scots do not want independence and a "no" vote would leave the SNP with purpose.

Both the Prime Minister and Scottish Labour leader Alexander have consulted colleagues on the issue.

One insider said: "We should call Salmond's bluff. Faced with the stark reality of being on its own, the majority of Scots don't want independence. A referendum would show the strength of the Union and the limits of the SNP.

"But Labour refusing to support a public vote looks as if we are still sore from losing the Scottish elections."

Another senior Labour source said: "This should have happened six months ago. Salmond's popularity is rising, as is support for independence.

"From the start, we should have let people vote on the issue, while warning about the pitfalls of independence."

Labour fears that rising SNP support will cost many MPs and MSPs their seats.

Salmond's recent boast that the SNP's share of Westminster seats could soar from six to 20 is being taken seriously.

But backing a referendum is a huge gamble. Former Defence Secretary George Robertson predicted more than a decade ago that "devolution would kill separatism stone dead".

Instead, after defeats in 1999 and 2003, the SNP won last year's Holyrood election. It has promised a referendum by 2010, with public support rising.

A study of seven opinion polls shows support for separatism has gone up from 27 per cent last May to 41 per cent last month. And on Friday a poll of more than 600 businessmen and women found 39 per cent were now more in favour of independence than 12 months ago.

The SNP government has set up a National Conversation to boost its case and a website has exceeded 300,000 hits.

Salmond wants "preference voting", which would allow the public to rank their choices in order of preference by voting 1, 2 or 3 - independence, more powers for Holyrood or no change.

But Labour say the system could see Scotland become independent if just 26 per cent made it their top choice as second choices would be taken into account. They would likely demand a simple 'yes' or 'no' vote for independence.

Meanwhile, Alexander and Holyrood opposition party leaders have set up a commission to investigate possible new powers for the Scottish parliament. But it has refused to discuss independence.

Salmond said: "If the Scottish people are denied the right to choose their own future, there will be huge consequences.

"It would become the dominating issue of the 2011 Scottish parliament election campaign."

MAILFILE

Strathclyde University professor James Mitchell on the pros and cons for Labour

I EXPECT support for the status quo would be greater than support for independence.

Defeat for the SNP would set the party back and take independence off the agenda for quite some time.

Alex Salmond himself said there might not be another referendum for a generation.

Winning could galvanise the Labour leadership and support for the leadership.

IT is a big gamble for Labour.

It seems very odd that they would put the Union at risk in pursuit of simply trying to do down the SNP - it is like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

There must surely be other ways Labour can find to combat the SNP in government. This speaks more of the frustration within Labour rather than any strategic thinking.

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